What precisely is brewing in Bihar? The political situation in the state has taken a fresh turn with speculation rife that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is, once again, planning to part ways with the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The palpable tensions between Mr Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the BJP have led Mr Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal ~ which is the single-largest party in the 243- member Bihar Assembly with 79 seats ~ to dissolve its media panel.

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The RJD diktat to all senior party officials is not to make any public statement as its leadership works behind the scenes to turn the evolving situation in its favour.

Simple arithmetic tells us that if just the two Janata Parivar compatriots join hands again it would give them a majority in the House even without the smaller parties supporting the Chief Minister switching sides along with him.

Conjecture was at a fever pitch on Tuesday as parallel meetings of the JD(U) and RJD of their respective legislators were underway in Bihar, with reports indicating Mr Kumar had sought time from the Governor for an appointment. Bar last-minute surprises ~ and the state’s politicians are famous for springing these ~ the consensus among long-time observers of Bihar politics is that the JD(U) and BJP could indeed be parting ways.

Mr Kumar’s gameplan, as of now, seems to be to meet the Governor and recommend the removal of BJP ministers in his Cabinet, filling the vacancies thus created with MLAs from the RJD. This will also get him around the need to be sworn-in afresh by a Governor appointed by the BJP-ruled Centre.

The BJP, meanwhile, is learnt to be attempting to lure enough of the 45 disgruntled JD(U) MLAs over to its side to circumvent anti-defection rules. A repeat of the Maharashtra modus operandi where Chief Minister Eknath Shinde managed to get the support of over two-third rebel Shiv Sena legislators to unseat Mr Uddhav Thackeray is very much on the cards if the saffron party succeeds in its efforts.

The BJP has made no secret about its ambition to grow the party in Bihar where it has been expanding its social base in successive Assembly and Lok Sabha polls from 2014. The party’s aggressive national leadership has had a rocky relationship, for reasons both of ideology and personality, with the old-style Mr Kumar.

It sees itself as the dominant political force in the country (as the Congress once was) for decades to come, so it is understandable it would go for the kill if an opportunity is provided to absorb into the BJP fold regional forces which have nuisance value as independent political organisations.

It is what Mr Kumar, now in the sunset years of an impressive political career, wants which is arguably of greater interest.

It is believed he plans to continue as Chief Minister of an JD(U)-RJD alliance for another a year so when he will hand over the reins of the state to the RJD’s Mr Tejashwi Yadav and focus on carving out a role for himself in national Opposition politics in preparation for the 2024 General Election. Verily, hope springs eternal in Indian politics.